Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | WCU +188 UNCG -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +25 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -0.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -0.1 (-25.1) | 136.3 (-17.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.4 (-23.6) | 134.1 (-15.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.1 (-24.9) | 135.0 (-16.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.1 (-24.9) | 134.7 (-15.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#289) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#296) | -0.44 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#318) | -0.63 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#309) | 0.485 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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