Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -800 CHST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -13.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -12.0 (-5.0) | 139.4 (-6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.8 (-2.8) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -12.3 (-5.3) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -11.7 (-4.7) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 0-0 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-0 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#119) | -5.7 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | -1.42 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#131) | -1.67 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#151) | 0.417 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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