Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -120 MER +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -4.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -2.2 (+6.8) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.1 (+5.9) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.0 (+7.0) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.7 (+7.3) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#169) | 0.5 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#290) | -0.27 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#263) | -0.33 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#307) | 0.474 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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