Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | LR +100 UTM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -0.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.5 (+14.5) | 156.4 (+5.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.0 (+13.0) | 156.8 (+5.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.1 (+15.1) | 156.7 (+5.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.1 (+14.1) | 155.8 (+6.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LR 67 – 65 UTM |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LR 75 – 57 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.9 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#326) | -4.8 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#332) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#337) | -0.71 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#346) | 0.464 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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