Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USM -150 TROY +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | USM -9.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -7.6 (-3.6) | 144.3 (-20.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -5.0 (-1.0) | 143.6 (-19.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -8.4 (-4.4) | 146.1 (-22.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -8.1 (-4.1) | 146.8 (-22.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#45) | 5.6 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#37) | 0.19 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#37) | 0.65 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#46) | 0.491 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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