Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | INST -1200 EVAN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +28 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | INST -15.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -11.0 (+17.0) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.1 (+16.9) | 147.0 (+7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -11.3 (+16.7) | 148.6 (+5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.5 (+16.5) | 147.2 (+6.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#121) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#131) | -1.31 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#148) | -1.85 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#141) | 0.409 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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