Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +210 UNC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.5 (+1.5) | 155.9 (-5.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.3 (+2.3) | 154.9 (-4.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.8 (+1.2) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.4 (+0.6) | 154.5 (-4.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#74) | 11.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#68) | 2.36 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#61) | 2.99 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#70) | 0.647 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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