Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +33 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -31.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -26.4 (+6.6) | 148.9 (-11.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -27.1 (+5.9) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -23.2 (+9.8) | 148.8 (-11.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -26.9 (+6.1) | 147.8 (-10.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#31) | -15.5 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#51) | -2.05 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#50) | -2.45 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#85) | 0.347 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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