Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | USI -188 SEMO +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | USI -5.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -4.1 (+0.9) | 153.3 (+13.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -5.0 (-0.0) | 151.7 (+15.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -3.6 (+1.4) | 153.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -3.8 (+1.2) | 153.5 (+13.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SEMO 90 – 65 USI |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SEMO 84 – 76 USI |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SEMO 79 – 74 USI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 66 USI |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SEMO 70 – 66 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#217) | -3.3 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#206) | -0.63 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#210) | -0.78 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#193) | 0.487 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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