Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -275 UTA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -10.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.8 (+0.2) | 132.7 (+0.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.0 (+0.0) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -6.6 (+0.4) | 138.8 (-5.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.6 (+0.4) | 138.7 (-5.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#166) | -5.2 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | -1.17 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#142) | -1.76 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#94) | 0.478 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.