Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -155 TAR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -4.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -3.8 (+3.2) | 141.1 (-6.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -4.3 (+2.7) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -4.0 (+3.0) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -4.6 (+2.4) | 140.8 (-5.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UTA 87 – 84 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#147) | 0.0 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#94) | 0.14 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | 0.57 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#82) | 0.499 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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