Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -120 UTA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -0.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.3 (-5.3) | 135.4 (-10.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.3 (-5.3) | 134.9 (-9.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -0.7 (-5.7) | 132.4 (-7.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.4 (-5.4) | 134.0 (-9.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UTA 87 – 84 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#214) | -0.7 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#193) | 0.24 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#175) | 0.31 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#250) | 0.510 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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