Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +195 UTA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -6.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -5.8 (+8.8) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -6.7 (+9.7) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -6.3 (+9.3) | 139.5 (+11.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -6.0 (+9.0) | 138.5 (+12.5) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UTA 87 – 84 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#339) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#302) | -0.53 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#317) | -0.57 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#255) | 0.499 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 28.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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