Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +105 UTA -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +3 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -1.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -0.8 (-2.2) | 144.9 (+26.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.8 (-2.2) | 144.3 (+26.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.3 (-1.7) | 145.7 (+25.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.7 (-2.3) | 145.9 (+25.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#88) | 0.45 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#99) | 0.81 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#68) | 0.531 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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