Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -148 TAR +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -4.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.0 (-8.0) | 133.2 (-1.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -3.4 (-9.4) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.5 (-8.5) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -2.1 (-8.1) | 133.5 (-1.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UTA 87 – 84 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#150) | 0.9 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#101) | 0.67 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#108) | 0.71 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#72) | 0.534 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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