Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -300 TAR +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -9.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -6.4 (+3.6) | 136.1 (-12.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -7.6 (+2.4) | 135.1 (-11.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -7.0 (+3.0) | 137.3 (-13.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -6.0 (+4.0) | 136.4 (-12.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UTA 87 – 84 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#221) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#238) | -0.91 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#233) | -1.19 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#251) | 0.454 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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