Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -700 ULM +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +4 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -15.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -10.2 (-14.2) | 133.4 (-23.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -11.6 (-15.6) | 132.8 (-22.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -11.1 (-15.1) | 137.8 (-27.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -10.6 (-14.6) | 136.7 (-26.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#196) | -12.5 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#209) | -2.83 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#194) | -3.41 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.370 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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