Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +180 UCSB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +8 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.2 (-6.8) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -2.1 (-5.9) | 130.6 (-6.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.6 (-7.4) | 132.0 (-8.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.4 (-6.6) | 132.9 (-8.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#209) | 3.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#191) | 1.22 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#202) | 1.17 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#201) | 0.544 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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