Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +110 NAU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -2.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -1.1 (+24.9) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -2.2 (+23.8) | 142.9 (-10.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.4 (+24.6) | 145.0 (-13.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.9 (+25.1) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#279) | -3.6 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#342) | -0.77 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#318) | -0.91 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#348) | 0.468 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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