Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -800 IDHO +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -9.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.8 (+7.2) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.3 (+3.7) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.9 (+7.1) | 146.4 (-16.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.1 (+6.9) | 145.7 (-15.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-10 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | -2.4 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#144) | -1.29 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#134) | -1.58 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#128) | 0.381 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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