Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -600 CSUB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -12.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -8.7 (+3.3) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -9.2 (+2.8) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -9.3 (+2.7) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -9.2 (+2.8) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | -6.6 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#121) | -1.56 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#141) | -1.86 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.390 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.