Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -1600 BUF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +21 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -14.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -13.8 (+7.2) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -11.2 (+9.8) | 144.9 (+12.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -12.9 (+8.1) | 145.8 (+11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -14.2 (+6.8) | 145.4 (+11.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#78) | -2.9 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#52) | -0.65 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#59) | -0.93 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#48) | 0.496 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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