Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -138 KC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -6.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.3 (-2.3) | 136.6 (+31.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.2 (-0.2) | 134.0 (+34.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.2 (-2.2) | 136.9 (+31.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.0 (-2.0) | 137.1 (+30.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#241) | -5.5 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#220) | -0.74 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#248) | -1.18 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#291) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 24.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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