Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -275 UCD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -6.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -6.7 (+1.3) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -5.6 (+2.4) | 138.4 (+1.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -6.2 (+1.8) | 138.4 (+1.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -6.6 (+1.4) | 139.6 (+0.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#123) | 1.0 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#148) | -0.16 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#114) | -0.04 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#197) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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