Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -120 FAU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +4 | 96 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -0.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.5 (-4.5) | 117.9 (-21.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.4 (-7.4) | 118.2 (-22.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -1.4 (-5.4) | 127.2 (-31.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.7 (-6.7) | 126.6 (-30.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNT 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNT 73 – 72 FAU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UNT 71 – 61 FAU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNT 77 – 64 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#58) | 13.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#35) | 2.32 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#33) | 2.83 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#22) | 0.609 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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