Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -125 STO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -1.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.9 (+0.1) | 150.2 (-5.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.7 (+1.7) | 149.9 (-4.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.4 (+0.6) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.1 (+1.1) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#337) | -7.4 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#350) | -1.22 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.53 (#349) | -1.86 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#336) | 0.477 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 17.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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