Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -2.5 Home covered |
| Money | TOW +140 COFC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -2.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -3.1 (+1.1) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -1.3 (-0.7) | 140.6 (+9.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -2.9 (+0.9) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -2.3 (+0.3) | 143.0 (+7.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 8-7 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#157) | 7.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#138) | 2.95 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#141) | 3.34 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#156) | 0.647 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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