Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +100 COFC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +16 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -1.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.0 (-16.0) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -0.1 (-15.9) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.3 (-16.3) | 136.2 (-8.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.5 (-16.5) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TOW 82 – 78 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#151) | 1.07 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#155) | 1.24 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#145) | 0.555 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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