Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -162 COFC +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -3.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -1.4 (+7.6) | 135.4 (-22.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.5 (+6.5) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.0 (+8.0) | 135.0 (-22.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.2 (+7.8) | 135.4 (-22.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TOW 82 – 78 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#182) | -0.6 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#193) | 0.56 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#185) | 0.54 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#156) | 0.528 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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