Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -250 TOW +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -3.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.7 (+0.3) | 135.5 (-18.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -4.9 (+0.1) | 135.7 (-18.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -3.8 (+1.2) | 135.4 (-18.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -3.2 (+1.8) | 136.3 (-19.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TOW 82 – 78 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#80) | 0.29 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#89) | 0.30 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#61) | 0.519 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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