Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -162 TOW +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +25 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -1.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -1.5 (-26.5) | 129.9 (+7.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -0.9 (-25.9) | 132.0 (+5.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.8 (-26.8) | 128.5 (+8.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.6 (-26.6) | 128.4 (+8.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TOW 82 – 78 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | -0.4 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#106) | 0.05 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#127) | -0.03 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#83) | 0.535 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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