Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +145 SDSU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -1.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -2.2 (-11.2) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -1.3 (-10.3) | 142.3 (+0.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -2.6 (-11.6) | 141.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -2.4 (-11.4) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#66) | 11.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#44) | 1.73 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#37) | 2.41 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#24) | 0.613 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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