Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -400 SJSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -8.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.5 (-11.5) | 133.8 (+14.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -4.9 (-12.9) | 134.1 (+13.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.0 (-12.0) | 138.0 (+10.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.6 (-11.6) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#93) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#103) | 1.24 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#104) | 1.86 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#86) | 0.562 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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