Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SC -450 EMU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SC -4.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -3.5 (+6.5) | 143.2 (-5.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -7.2 (+2.8) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -4.3 (+5.7) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -4.6 (+5.4) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#295) | -6.8 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#180) | -1.58 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#218) | -1.79 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#175) | 0.392 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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