Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MER +110 UTC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +29 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -4.1 (-33.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.6 (-31.6) | 148.3 (-17.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.1 (-28.9) | 144.9 (-13.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.6 (-31.6) | 150.3 (-19.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.9 (-30.9) | 150.6 (-19.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#165) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#222) | -0.18 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#215) | -0.19 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#252) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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