Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -138 RICH +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.9 (+1.1) | 135.5 (-15.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.1 (+0.9) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.3 (+0.7) | 135.2 (-15.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.0 (-0.0) | 136.4 (-16.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | 3.3 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#133) | -0.16 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | 0.41 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#75) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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