Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -175 LR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -5.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.8 (+22.2) | 155.6 (+7.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.0 (+22.0) | 154.3 (+8.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.3 (+22.7) | 154.6 (+8.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.4 (+22.6) | 154.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#302) | -8.3 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#318) | -1.49 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#320) | -2.12 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#354) | 0.404 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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