Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -175 JMU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -3.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -3.9 (-9.9) | 156.8 (-18.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -1.8 (-7.8) | 156.9 (-18.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.9 (-9.9) | 157.8 (-19.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -3.6 (-9.6) | 157.3 (-19.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#45) | 11.2 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#54) | 0.60 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#61) | 0.96 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#58) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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