Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UK -26.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -22.7 (+0.3) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -20.8 (+2.2) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -21.4 (+1.6) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -22.8 (+0.2) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | LOU 96 – 88 UK |
| Dec 14, 2024 | UK 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UK 95 – 76 LOU |
| Dec 26, 2020 | LOU 62 – 59 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-13 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#40) | -11.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#72) | -2.74 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#70) | -2.60 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#82) | 0.407 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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