Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -230 UK +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +8 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -15.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -8.1 (-0.1) | 151.2 (+32.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -9.3 (-1.3) | 150.2 (+33.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -10.0 (-2.0) | 150.5 (+33.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -10.1 (-2.1) | 152.0 (+32.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UK 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UK 95 – 76 LOU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UK 86 – 63 LOU |
| Dec 26, 2020 | LOU 62 – 59 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#9) | 12.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#125) | 0.83 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#119) | 1.26 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#250) | 0.688 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 50.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 2.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 40.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.1% | 34.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 81.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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