Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UK -650 LOU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UK -14.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -15.0 (-7.0) | 159.6 (+18.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -13.0 (-5.0) | 155.4 (+22.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -14.1 (-6.1) | 154.4 (+23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -14.2 (-6.2) | 156.8 (+21.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | LOU 96 – 88 UK |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UK 95 – 76 LOU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UK 86 – 63 LOU |
| Dec 26, 2020 | LOU 62 – 59 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#6) | 11.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#8) | 1.78 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#11) | 3.11 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#18) | 0.596 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 44.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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