Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +650 UK -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +19 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -12.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -7.8 (-11.2) | 158.5 (+12.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -9.3 (-9.7) | 157.6 (+13.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -8.8 (-10.2) | 160.3 (+10.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -9.1 (-9.9) | 158.1 (+12.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | LOU 96 – 88 UK |
| Dec 14, 2024 | UK 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UK 86 – 63 LOU |
| Dec 26, 2020 | LOU 62 – 59 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#239) | 13.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#298) | 2.00 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#301) | 2.87 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#325) | 0.597 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 2.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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