Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -170 UK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -11.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.2 (-6.2) | 129.0 (-8.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -11.3 (-8.3) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -12.2 (-9.2) | 132.3 (-11.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -12.6 (-9.6) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | LOU 96 – 88 UK |
| Dec 14, 2024 | UK 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UK 95 – 76 LOU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UK 86 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#63) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | -1.84 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#39) | -1.53 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#12) | 0.420 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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