Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | SDST -200 STMN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -0.4 (+6.6) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -3.1 (+3.9) | 140.4 (-5.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -0.8 (+6.2) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -0.1 (+6.9) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#215) | 0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#162) | 0.08 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#207) | -0.26 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#127) | 0.472 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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