Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +120 CONN -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.7 (+13.7) | 153.9 (+2.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.2 (+12.2) | 149.9 (+6.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.3 (+14.3) | 153.7 (+2.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.9 (+12.9) | 153.2 (+2.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#25) | 21.7 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#27) | 4.91 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#25) | 6.91 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#38) | 0.653 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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