Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +188 LMU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -3.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -4.6 (+10.6) | 149.7 (+0.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -4.5 (+10.5) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -4.1 (+10.1) | 147.6 (+2.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -3.7 (+9.7) | 149.0 (+1.0) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | PAC 65 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LMU 80 – 71 PAC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PAC 83 – 58 LMU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | LMU 73 – 68 PAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LMU 86 – 63 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#232) | 5.4 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#285) | 1.38 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#278) | 1.72 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#319) | 0.569 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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