Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -225 ULM +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -9.3 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.5 (-17.5) | 131.6 (+24.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -6.3 (-18.3) | 129.6 (+26.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.2 (-17.2) | 132.0 (+24.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.6 (-17.6) | 132.4 (+23.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#288) | -11.0 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#216) | -1.78 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#249) | -1.94 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.400 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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