Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -110 UNCA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -1.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.7 (+1.3) | 149.9 (-27.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.1 (+0.9) | 148.6 (-26.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.0 (+1.0) | 151.4 (-29.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.8 (+1.2) | 151.0 (-29.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#279) | -2.3 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#254) | 0.16 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#250) | -0.25 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#244) | 0.502 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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