Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +170 ETSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +14 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -0.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -1.3 (-15.3) | 140.2 (-26.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -1.2 (-15.2) | 138.4 (-24.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -1.6 (-15.6) | 143.8 (-29.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -0.7 (-14.7) | 143.0 (-29.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#316) | -4.5 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#299) | -2.12 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#294) | -2.83 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#300) | 0.399 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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