Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USU -800 FRES +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | USU -17.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -14.1 (-1.1) | 139.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -12.0 (+1.0) | 137.0 (-16.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.5 (+0.5) | 141.0 (-20.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.8 (-0.8) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#20) | 0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#35) | -0.72 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#24) | -0.55 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#16) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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